Dear Participant,
We can now assume (can we?) that you have some sense
of the terms or phrases of “policy”, “policymaking”, “holistic”, “analysis”, “synthesis”,
“GIGO”, “scientific knowledge”, “artistic dimension of policymaking”, “Ockham’s
Razor”, “parsimony”, “KISS” and “Tinbergen Rule”. Remember that these will help
you a lot while formulating and writing down your scenario solutions during
Yep-D 2016.
In this information pack, we invite you to the
fascinating world of economic data first. By the very nature of our workshop,
we tend to underline macroeconomic data, indeed. Let’s turn to our key
questions. What is data? What is the origin of this word? Is it singular or
plural? What does distinguish macroeconomic and microeconomic data? Why do we
talk about time series and cross section dimensions of data? By the way, what
is panel data? Have you ever encountered these before, possibly in your
statistics or econometrics courses? What do you understand when one talks about
the dissemination of data? What is a dissemination calendar? Is it a real-time
process?
Second, we turn our attention to forecasting of
economic variables. Consider the most popular of such an exercise: How can we
sense the upcoming pace of economic activity? If I say the growth rate of
Turkish economy will be 8% in 2016, would you trust my forecast? Why? Why not?
Should every forecast be based on econometric analyses? If not, what can you
cite as alternative tools? You know about forecasting now. What about
backcasting or nowcasting? Do you thing judgment is a crucial element of
forecasting?
Third, we have a list of economic concepts for you
to review. These are the fundamental economic relationships and laws: (1) Fundamental
Identity of Macroeconomics, (2) Phillips Curve, (3) Expectations-augmented
Phillips Curve, (4) Quantity Theory of Money, (5) Okun’s Law, (6) Taylor Rule,
(7) Uncovered Interest Parity (8) Zarnowitz Rule. Without proper reference to
those it would be almost impossible to generate reliable forecasts of an
economy. By the way, are accuracy and precision the same things?
§
Professional life is heavily based on communications.
So is Yep-D. A significant portion of communications today takes place in
electronic environments. E-mails are important. So is how fast one pays
attention to professional e-mails. So is how properly one responds to business
correspondences. Fortunately, smart phones, tablet computers and push e-mail
notifications make our lives easier. One does not even have to check e-mails,
they pop-up. More importantly, viewing e-mail attachments are now easier than
it has ever been. There is a multiplicity of free mobile software regardless of
the mobile operating system. Consequently, it is quite easy to measure one’s
seriousness and devotion (to practically anything): those who respond to this
e-mail within five days and include the phrase “Dismal Science” in their message
body will automatically earn some bonus points in Yep-D 2016. Other than that
everybody is still supposed to send a usual confirmation. Finally, please
include your Facebook user name in your e-mails so as to be included in Yep-D
page on Facebook.
Your turn now.
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